9* Under Rangers/Astros (7:10 ET): Texas has been just dreadful since the All-Star Break, losing all eight of its games by a combined score of 71-13! Going back to BEFORE the break, they’ve lost 10 in a row. It was more of the same last night as they fell to the Astros 7-3 in the series opener. Houston scored all seven of its runs in two innings, so there was some “cluster luck” involved. But considering the fact the Rangers absolutely stink on the road (13-38 this year!) and the Astros are now north of -200 on the ML, this should be another easy win for the home team.

But as good as the AL West leaders are (#2 in my power ratings), I’m not looking to bet them on the ML today. It’s tempting, but the price is just too high. I think the Under is a much better value here as you know the Rangers aren’t going to score many runs and the Astros aren’t likely to score as many as they did last night. The likelihood that the home team won’t have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (assuming they are ahead) would also be beneficial to an Under play as the better team will only come up to bat eight times.

Texas has its best starter on the mound Saturday in Kyle Gibson. Gibson has a 2.86 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 18 starts. While he’s been better in Arlington (compared to on the road), you can generally count on a quality start from him. Now he has struggled in B2B starts, especially the last one, but he also allowed 2 ER or less in 15 of his first 17 starts this season. That includes 3 for 3 in quality starts vs. the Astros (1.89 ERA in 19 IP). I think we should also see Houston’s Framber Valdez pitch better than he has recently. Valdez has allowed 3 ER or less in 8 of his 10 starts this season. 9* Under Rangers/Astros