7* Houston (10:10 ET): Seattle is a team I flat out do not believe in. At 54-46, they are just 1.5 games off the pace in the AL Wild Card race. But this is a team that’s been outscored by 52 runs this season. That’s a comparable differential to the Tigers, who are just 47-54 on the year! In fact, with a run differential of -52, the Mariners’ win expectancy is 44! The 10-game gap between actual and expected wins is by far the largest of any team in baseball (no other team has outperformed expectations by more than four wins!). They are 23-8 in one-run games, including three straight wins by that exact margin. Ridiculous!

Houston, who leads the AL West, is a team I very much believe in. I’ve got the Astros rated as the #1 team in the American League right now and #2 overall in MLB (Dodgers are #1). They’ve got the record to back it up at 61-39 and I see them coasting to a division title. The weekend saw the ‘Stros sweep a three-game series against the last place Rangers and they’ve won five of six overall. I’m not concerned about them hitting the road as they average 5.6 runs per game away from home, which is #1 in MLB. Seattle is averaging only 3.8 rpg at home while batting a paltry .203. The M’s are 30th in team batting average and OBP.

Darren McCaughen, a rookie, will be making his first career big league start today for the Mariners. Injuries have decimated their starting rotation, which is the only reason he’s being called upon in this spot. It’s a very tough spot facing the #1 offensive team in baseball. Luis Garcia, facing the worst ranked offense in baseball, should do well in this start for Houston. Garcia shut Cleveland out for six innings in his most recent start, which lasted six innings. There have been only two times in 16 starts where Garcia has allowed more than 3 ER. I like the Astros big here. 7* Houston