10* Miami (6:10 ET): The Marlins probably aren’t the main focus of the Miami sports scene this evening, but they’re a good value at home facing the division rival Braves. Now Atlanta did come in and take the series opener on Friday, by a score of 5-3, but that was largely thanks to another ineffective start from Miami’s Trevor Rogers, who was charged with all five runs. The Marlins’ bullpen didn’t allow any runs over its five innings of work and the home team ended up with more hits than the Braves did. Atlanta is still a bit overvalued due to winning the World Series last year and I think Miami is better than its record.

After last night’s result, the Braves are now one-half game ahead of the Marlins in the NL East standings (they have one more win). But run differential paints a much different picture of the two clubs. Atlanta has been outscored by 11 runs on the season. Miami has a +17 run differential. Their 12 one-run losses (easily the most in baseball) have really hurt as no team has underachieved its win expectancy more. Look for their luck to turn however, especially at home where they are somehow 9-11 despite having outscored their opposition by a fairly significant margin.

Getting the baseball for Miami this evening will be Elieser Hernandez. It has not been a great start to the year for Hernandez, but Atlanta is hitting just .211 on the road thus far and .208 in games where they face a right-handed starter. Hernandez has a 2-0 TSR vs. the Braves since the start of last season. With him on the mound last month, the Marlins beat the Braves as a +145 underdog (even though Hernandez didn’t pitch very well). I expect him to outduel Kyle Wright in this spot as Wright is only two starts removed from getting shelled for six runs. Miami has done a lot more hitting than Atlanta recently and I expect the offense to carry Hernandez in this one. 10* Miami