For the second series in a row, the Mavs return home for Game 3 down two games to none. We all recall what happened against Phoenix in the last round. Now I’m not saying the Mavs pull that off again, but I do like them here in Game 3.

Certainly, Dallas feels that this Western Conference Final should be all squared away at one game apiece. They led Game 2 for most of the first three quarters and were up 14 at half. Luka Doncic had 42 points. But it was not to be as Golden State raced past them in the fourth.

The Mavs have won five straight at home in these playoffs since losing Game 1 of the Utah series (without Doncic). Something I have mentioned before is that they are #1 in the league in fewest points allowed at home (101.0 per game). I can assure you that the Warriors will not be shooting 56% again as they did in each of the first two games.

Though Coach Jason Kidd quipped that his team “died by the three” in Game 2, I expect the Mavs will continue to fire from behind the arc in this game. They’ve attempted 93 threes in the series. They made 21 in Game 2. Golden State shot a higher percentage, but will not repeat going 50% from deep as they did in Game 2.

Golden State has failed to cover each of its last four road games. Dallas is 6-0 ATS after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. Lay the points