10* Over Cardinals/Reds (1:10 ET): Cincinnati can make it seven in a row over St. Louis with a win on Sunday. They’ve captured the first two games of this series by scores of 6-5 and 5-3. This comes on the heels of winning all four games at Busch Stadium last month. The results of the L2 days have to be terribly disappointing for a Cardinals team that had won five of six going into this series, which had them back over .500. Cincy may have the “momentum,” but I feel the “safest” bet for Sunday’s finale - due to the pitching matchup and how most Reds’ home games have gone this season - is to take the Over.

Reds’ home games have averaged 11.0 runs this season. That’s the most for any team - even more than Colorado at Coors Field and Toronto (who has played at Spring Training/minor league facilities). It’s a combination of a strong offense (5.4 rpg) and shaky pitching (5.6 rpg allowed). The Reds got a better than expected start from Luis Castillo on Saturday, but I do NOT expect that to be the case today with Sonny Gray. He was really roughed up by St. Louis back on April 23rd when he gave up five runs on six hits. He lasted only 3 ⅔ innings. It’s not like that was some aberration either. Last time out, Gray again gave up five runs on six hits (this time in 4 ⅔ innings) to Milwaukee.

The Cardinals aren’t in much better shape on the mound this afternoon as they’ll send out Johan Oviedo, who has a horrifying 0-10 team start record vs the NL Central in his career. It’s not as if he’s been unlucky either as his ERA in those 10 starts is 5.21. He’s averaged less than five innings per start as well. Oviedo is also winless this year (against everybody!) with an 0-5 record in 12 starts. He has a 5.92 ERA and 1.973 WHIP on the road. Neither bullpen is all that good either. 10* Over Cardinals/Reds