10* New England (4:25 ET): Dallas is the only team in the league to still be undefeated ATS. The Cowboys ran their mark to 5-0 ATS (and 4-1 SU) with a convincing 44-20 win last week (as seven-point favorites). But the team they beat (the Giants) resembled the “walking wounded” by the end of that game. By the time the second half kicked off, the G-Men were without SEVEN of their Week 1 starters on offense. This included QB Jones, RB Barkley and WR Golladay. So it’s no wonder that the Cowboys were able to win so easily.

This week’s opponent seems a lot healthier and is also coming off a win. Now it was closer than anyone expected, but the Patriots did get by the Texans 25-22. This will now be the second time in three weeks that the Pats are home underdogs, something that never happened all that much when Tom Brady was the QB here. You may recall that I took the Patriots two weeks ago when they hosted Brady’s new team (Tampa Bay) and they came away with the cash, covering the number in a close 19-17 loss. If they can stick with the Bucs (lone team to beat Dallas this year), then they can stick with - or beat - the Cowboys.

It all starts with a New England defense that gives up only 18.3 PPG. That’s top five in the league. Then, as I discussed in the analysis for the TB game, Bill Belichick has been great as an underdog throughout his career. He’s 49-24-1 ATS here in NE, including 25-10-1 since 2006. As a home dog, Belichick is 15-4 ATS with 12 outright wins. Dallas is an extremely “public” side this week and I definitely trust my money with Belichick more so than I do with Mike McCarthy. Take the points. 10* New England