Boston @ Miami 6:00 PM ET
Game# 545-546
Play On: Under 205.0

Since last year, Miami home playoffs games with a total of 200.0 to 209.0 have played 4-0 to the under with the average number being 206.0. The Heat have allowed 105 points or fewer in 5 of their last 6 games. Miami is averaging a respectable 13 three-point makes per game this season. However, in Game 2 they made a season high 23 three-point shots and that also set a franchise record in postseason play. I will go out on a limb and say they will regress substantially in the area today with Boston putting a major emphasis on correcting themselves defensively in that area.

The first 2-games of this series were played at an extremely slow pace by NBA standards. Thos contests average just a combined 159.0 field goal attempts per game. We saw only a combined 61 free throw attempts in Games 1 and 2 which is also an abnormally low number. That indicates to me that both teams have been disciplined defensively. Give me this game to go under the total.