PREMIUM
AAA's 10* MSU/'Bama Playoff Semi-Final BLOCKBUSTER - 4-0 (100%) w/ NCAAF Champ. Picks!
(NCAAF) Michigan State vs. Alabama,
12/31/2015 3:00 PM, Score: 0 - 38
Point Spread: -9.50 | -109.00 Alabama (Home)
Result: Win
Point Spread: -9.50 | -109.00 Alabama (Home)
Result: Win
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Alabama.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Michigan State has struggled with teams outside of its conference for years, not only is it 0-4 ATS this year in non-conference games, but it's also just 6-8 ATS it last 14 over the last three. And note that Alabama is 3-1 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range.
The bottom line: Michigan State won a couple of games it shouldn't have this year, while Alabama has gotten progressively better with each game this season. MSU has been good agains the run, but now faces the nation's No. 1 back in Derrick Henry. We think the Spartans "luck" runs out in this one and that the "better" team pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS victory. Play on ALABAMA.
AAA Sports
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Michigan State has struggled with teams outside of its conference for years, not only is it 0-4 ATS this year in non-conference games, but it's also just 6-8 ATS it last 14 over the last three. And note that Alabama is 3-1 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range.
The bottom line: Michigan State won a couple of games it shouldn't have this year, while Alabama has gotten progressively better with each game this season. MSU has been good agains the run, but now faces the nation's No. 1 back in Derrick Henry. We think the Spartans "luck" runs out in this one and that the "better" team pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS victory. Play on ALABAMA.
AAA Sports
